Trucking’s Tech Mandate: Why Crashes Increased After a Safety Fix

Five years ago, a sweeping technological mandate rolled across America’s highways with a clear purpose: saving lives. Electronic Logging Devices, or ELDs, were required in nearly all commercial trucks to prevent fatigued driving. By replacing paper logbooks with engine-linked digital records, regulators believed drivers would be forced to rest, creating safer roads for everyone who shared them.

The original goals of the ELD mandate

• Avoid driver fatigue
• Eliminate falsified paper logs
• Enforce legal driving limits.
• Reduce crashes and fatalities
• Improve national road safety

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration projected dramatic results, predicting thousands of crashes avoided and dozens of lives saved annually. On paper, the logic was perfect: Technology would eliminate temptation and compel compliance. Yet five years later, the real world results paint a more complicated and troubling picture.

1. Technology Meets a Complex Human System

The ELD mandate fit a familiar modern narrative: one in which digital tools promise to fix deeply human problems. By tracking driving time with an exactitude that borders on the absurd, the system stripped flexibility and exchanged judgment for automation. Proponents assumed this rigid enforcement would naturally reduce risk-the reasonable assumption that safety improves when rules are followed without exception.

Why the Solution Seemed Foolproof

• Automated Time Tracking
• Tamper-resistant records
• Uniform enforcement standards
• Reduced reliance on honesty
• Clear accountability

But trucking is no controlled laboratory. Weather, traffic, loading delays, and mechanical issues define every route. And when technology collided with those realities, a paradox emerged. Instead of reducing danger, evidence began to suggest that rigid enforcement created new pressures that undermined safety itself.

2. Troubling Data From Independent Researchers

The concerns turned serious when the researchers from the University of Arkansas released their detailed analysis of federal safety data. The findings contradicted official predictions, concluding that the ELD mandate did not reduce accidents. More alarmingly, it seemed to coincide with an increase in unsafe driving incidents, especially among the drivers the rule was intended to protect.

Key Findings from the Arkansas Study

• No overall accident reduction
• Increased crashes involving small carriers
• Higher risk for owner-operators
• Increased citations for unsafe driving
• Uneven impact on the industry

These findings sent shockwaves through trucking and policy circles. If technology designed to save lives correlated with more crashes, it raised serious questions about how safety rules interact with economic pressures and human behavior.

3. Small Carriers Bear the Greatest Burden

The Arkansas study zeroed in on the drivers most affected by the mandate. Smaller companies, and independent owner-operators, were less likely to have used electronic logs before the rule. Once the rule was implemented, their safety records deteriorated relative to large carriers that had compliance systems in place.

Who Was Most Affected?

• Independent owner-operators
• Fleets ranging from two to twenty trucks
• Drivers being paid strictly by the mile
• Carriers lacking compliance resources
• Rural and regional operators

Accident rates for independent operators rose by 11.6 percent, while small fleets experience a 9 percent increase. These drivers were also issued more citations for unsafe behaviors like speeding, indicating change, rather than random variation.

4. Independent analyses confirm the pattern

The Arkansas findings were not an anomaly. Trucking publication Overdrive conducted its own analysis comparing crash data from before and after the mandate. In every year but pandemic-disrupted 2020, truck-involved crashes and injuries were higher in the post-ELD period.

What the Overdrive Analysis Showed

• Higher crash counts after 2018
• Increased injury totals
• Persistent trends across several years
• An anomaly or Pandemic year
• No sustained safety improvement

This broader dataset reinforced the uncomfortable conclusion that the mandate failed to deliver its promised safety benefits. Instead, it seemed to coincide with the worsening of outcomes in normal traffic conditions.

5. The Economic Reality of Trucking

To understand why safety went downhill, researchers looked beyond the devices themselves. Most long-haul truckers are paid by the mile, not by the hour. This system rewards speed and efficiency, rather than caution. The ELD mandate changed how time is measured but left the underlying financial incentives untouched.

How Truckers Are Paid

• Mileage-based compensation
• Unpaid loading delays
• No guarantees of an hourly wage
• Earnings linked to delivery speed
• The financial pressure to maximize miles

Before ELDs, drivers could absorb delays by adjusting paper logs, most often illegally but practically. That flexibility vanished in rigid enforcement, ratcheting up pressure to complete the same work in less forgiving time windows.

6. When a Clock Becomes a Risk Factor

The ELD works just like a stop watch: it starts, and it stops, no argument. For drivers who regularly encounter congested traffic, weather delays, or slow warehouses, that accuracy translates to added stress. Instead of taking a rest when feeling tired, drivers may push harder to keep on schedule.

Behavioral Changes Induced by Rigid Timing

• Increased speeding
• Skipped rest breaks
• riskier driving decisions
• Reduced recovery time
• Increased stress levels

Researchers believe that this compression of routes into fixed hours explains the rising accident rates. When drivers race against the clock, safety becomes secondary to survival in a pay-by-the-mile system.

7. Voices from the Driver’s Seat

Truckers themselves have also been vocal about the unintended consequences of ELDs. Many describe feeling rushed, monitored, and stripped of discretion. The system does not account for real-world judgment, turning safety compliance into a mechanical exercise rather than a professional responsibility.

Common Driver Complaints

• Forced shutdowns near home
• Inflexibility in emergency situations
• Unsafe parking requirements
• No allowance for conditions
• Perpetual surveillance pressure

Some drivers describe situations when they have to stop driving in unsafe areas or leave common sense behind because the clock has expired. These are the rigid outcomes that undermine both safety and morale.

8. Autonomy Lost on the Open Road

For decades, trucking was a magnet for people who prized independence. Drivers controlled their own time, routes, and choices. The ELD upended that. What was once a profession based on trust became one dominated by digital monitoring.

Why does autonomy matter to truckers?

• Personal responsibility
• Professional judgment
• Flexible decision-making
• Pride in independence
• Job satisfaction

This loss of autonomy has contributed to dissatisfaction and attrition, as drivers increasingly feel treated as risks to be controlled rather than professionals to be trusted. It has undermined the human underpinning required for safety.

9. Government and Industry Pushback

Federal agencies and safety groups have resisted pointing the finger solely at ELDs for increasing crashes. FMCSA officials argue that safety trends stem from many factors coming together, such as infrastructure, behavior, and enforcement, not solely a single technology.

Official Alternative Explanations

• Distracted Driving
• Pandemic-era behavior changes
• Increased volume of traffic
• Broader safety culture changes
• Multiple contributing factors

Industry groups echoed this in saying COVID-era driving habits worsened behavior. But these explanations have struggled to align with the timing and specifics of the data.

10. Data Challenges the Pandemic Narrative

Crash trends were rising well before pandemic lockdowns, starting in 2018. In fact, 2020, the year roads were emptiest, ranked among the safest years studied. 

Timeline That Raises Questions

• ELD Mandate in 2017
• Crash increases starting 2018
• Pandemic 2020
• Safety improved during lockdowns
• Trends resumed afterward

These facts undermine the claims that post-COVID behavior explains the increase in truck crashes. Timing that suggests systemic issues tied to enforcement and incentives, not temporary behavioral shifts.